Bayesian Anaylsis
How we work
In order to implement a Bayesian approach a rigorous procedure for extracting the necessary information to build chronological models from archaeological sites is required.
- Define the problem
Structure X
When was is first use (start)
When did it go out of use (end)
How long was it in use (span)
- Sample selection
The integrity of radiocarbon samples is critical when contextual information is used to modify chronologies. Thus the first stage is to identify short-lived material, which is demonstrably not residual in the context from which it was recovered.
Examples
- Build simulation
A model simulating the problem was built, based on the ‘prior information’ available about the dating of the samples, the archaeological estimate of the date of the activity, the expected available samples, and the type of measurements which may be obtained from them.